← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Wind Astra ClericTier 2
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dawn's Reversal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tend the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunar Conduit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horticounter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunar Seer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |